Andy makes a good point about the extent of frozen water. In '03 and '94
a lot fewer Ohio lakes were frozen over, even though lakes to the north
were. If grebes have been driven south, though, I don't know where they
are right now; there was an unusual report of 25 in Brooklyn, NY the
other day, so maybe the grebes are heading more directly east, which is
probably where they eventually ended up after Ohio's invasions of the
past. They are, in effect, skipping a brief icy stay in Ohio in favor of
a direct move to their traditional winter locations off the east coast.
        No swan, introduced or not, will stay long in an area without open
water. Part of the large population of introduced trumpeters at frigid
Seney Refuge in Michigan's UP, for example, "migrates" a few miles away
to always-open water below a dam. Few have traditional wintering areas,
just facultative ones. Some of Michigan's large population of introduced
trumps moves south ahead of frozen water, some as far as Ohio, but this
year maybe even farther as open water is harder to find. Swan ID is not
always for eBird beginners, either, and the increasing numbers of wild
tundra swans lingering in Ohio have to be reckoned with.
        I should mention the informative notes I got from folks who chose to
write only to me rather than to all readers of this list.
First, I am persuaded by knowledgeable persons that greater scaups
have been seen here in larger-than-expected numbers this winter. Maybe
even Milt Trautman would agree! Their traditional migratory route leads
them much farther east, and for whatever reason--presumably
weather-related--they have first moved south through Ohio in greater
numbers this winter. Scaup ID remains a challenge for the beginner,
though, with the most reliable feature at any distance the pattern of
males' underwings in flight.
        If nothing else, it seems clear that water temperature can make a big
difference in the mix of birds we see this time of year...thanks to
everyone who shared their knowledge.
Bill Whan
Columbus

On 2/19/2014 12:40 PM, Andrew Sewell wrote:
> Bill raises some interesting questions. I wonder if the '94 and '03 winter
> freeze-ups were as total as this one seems to have been, with many, if not
> most,  inland bodies of water frozen throughout the state. I recently
> traveled to the UP of Michigan on a family trip and can confirm that the
> Great Lakes are frozen almost completely - I saw no open water anywhere
> from Houghton in the Keewenaw Peninsula to here in Columbus, although there
> must be some here and there. A check of eBird reports for Red-necked Grebe
> shows that participants in that web application are reporting the species
> mainly along the mid-Atlantic coast in February, with a number in the
> Finger Lakes region of New York. Scaup are being seen along the shores of
> Lake Michigan and Lake Huron - presumably at power plants, and throughout
> the eastern US.
>
> A question I'd like to throw out there is where do the Michigan Trumpeter
> Swans go in such conditions? Again, eBird shows an interesting distribution
> in Michigan, with a band of sightings across the northern part of the Lower
> Peninsula, from Traverse City to Tawas Point, and then another band of
> sightings across the lower quarter of the Peninsula. It makes me wonder if
> the northern group represents birds moving out of the UP, with the southern
> group perhaps a mix of winter-dispersed Michigan and Ohio birds. That of
> course raises the issue of whether any Michigan birds are making it to
> Ohio...
>
> Andy Sewell
> Columbus, Ohio

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