Matt--
        That's a good question I haven't thought about. I don't think cold 
weather prompts unusual local arrivals of northern birds any more than 
hot weather does the same for southern birds. They are adapted to the 
weather extremes in their ranges. For example, we are probably not 
seeing this invasion of snowy owls because it is too cold up north. The 
important factor is food.
        I don't think anyone can predict large incursions of birds based on 
weather alone, unless the weather affects food sources. Back in the late 
19th century, Ohio and neighboring states experienced a winter invasion 
of thick-billed murres, which was thought to have been caused by a 
failure in an important food source for this species: I wrote an article 
for the Cardinal about this species, not seen here for many many years, 
in the Winter 2003-4 Ohio Cardinal. It seems similar factors may have 
been involved in the unprecedented (for humans at least) incursion of 
razorbills last winter, which appeared in large numbers as far south as 
Miami (see the new issue of North American Birds)! Many birders are 
aware of the extreme variations in the numbers of winter finches each 
winter, which seem to be influenced by varying seed crops in the 
northern forests. These seem to be the best factors we humans can use to 
predict occurrences so far ahead for birds of the north.
        Extralimital occurrences happen for reasons we cannot always predict. 
We had a royal tern here near Columbus three years ago, but no one had 
any idea ahead of time that violent storms along the Gulf would sling 
one up this way in 2011.
        So my answer would be we can't tell, and isn't that part of the 
intriguing mystery?
Shivering,
Bill
	



Bill … Can you also pontificate on what types of birds might be coming 
down with the arctic weather we should be on the look out for?

Thanks!
Matt

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