WINTER FINCH FORECAST 2007-2008

This winter's theme is "finches going in three directions" depending 
on the species. Some finches have gone east and west or both, while 
others will come south. Most coniferous and deciduous trees have very 
poor seed crops in much of Ontario and western Quebec. The exception 
is northwestern Ontario such as Quetico Provincial Park, Dryden and 
Lake of the Woods, where there are good crops on some species. 
However, north of a line from the top of Lake Nipigon to Manitoba the 
crops are generally low in the boreal forest. This will be a quiet 
winter for most (not all) winter finches in Algonquin Provincial 
Park, in contrast to last winter's bumper seed crops and abundance of 
finches. Most of last winter's White-winged Crossbills and Pine 
Siskins departed Ontario this past summer. They probably went either 
to eastern or western Canada or both where there are bumper cone 
crops. Type 3 Red Crossbills, which were abundant in Ontario last 
winter, have probably returned to their core range in western North 
America. White-winged and Red Crossbills and Pine Siskins will not be 
irrupting south out of Ontario as they do in some flight years, 
because most have already gone east and/or west. However, other 
winter finches such as Pine Grosbeaks, Evening Grosbeaks, Purple 
Finches and redpolls are irrupting or will irrupt southward out of 
northern Ontario. See individual species accounts for details. In 
addition I comment on other irruptive passerines, such as the 
Red-breasted Nuthatch, whose movements are linked to cone crops. Also 
included is a comment on northern owls.

INDIVIDUAL FINCH FORECASTS

Pine Grosbeak: This grosbeak will irrupt south of the breeding range 
because crops on native mountain-ashes (rowan berries) are generally 
poor in northeastern Ontario and across the boreal forest. However, 
crops are good in northwestern Ontario west of Lake Superior. Pine 
Grosbeaks should wander south to Lake Ontario and perhaps farther in 
search of crabapples and planted European mountain-ash berries, which 
have average crops in southern Ontario. Watch for them at feeders 
where they prefer sunflower seeds. After irruptions, Pine Grosbeaks 
return north earlier than other northern finches. Most are gone by 
late March. Buds form a larger part of their winter diet when 
mountain-ash crops are poor.

Purple Finch: Most Purple Finches will migrate out of Ontario this 
fall in response to the low seed crops. Currently, Purple Finches are 
migrating south through southern Ontario. Very few or none will stay 
behind at feeders in southern Ontario.

Red Crossbill: The Red Crossbill complex comprises 9 sibling Types, 
possibly full species, which have different call notes, and different 
bill sizes related to cone preferences. At least three Types occur in 
Ontario. Type 3 (smallest bill) prefers small hemlock cones (and 
spruce cones) in Ontario. The hemlock Type 3 was abundant last 
winter, but is presumed absent now from the province because hemlock 
produced few or no cones in 2007. Type 4 (medium sized bill) is 
adapted to white pine cones. White pine cone crops are fair to good 
(but spotty) in northern Ontario. Currently, small numbers of Type 4 
Red Crossbills are present on the "east side" of Algonquin Park 
(heavy crop on white pine) and probably elsewhere with extensive 
white pine forest. Algonquin's east side pine forest is accessible 
from Highway 17 west of Pembroke. South of Algonquin white pine crops 
are poor to none. An infrequent presumed Type 2 Red Crossbill is 
associated with red pine forests.

White-winged Crossbill: This crossbill moves back and forth across 
northern coniferous forests searching for new cone crops. Most 
White-winged Crossbills left Ontario this past summer. They will be 
scarce or absent in Ontario this winter. They presumably went either 
west to bumper spruce and fir cone crops in Alberta and British 
Columbia, and/or to Atlantic Canada, which has large cone crops on 
spruce and balsam fir, particularly in Newfoundland and Cape Breton 
Island in Nova Scotia. White-winged Crossbills are currently common 
in Newfoundland and western Canada.

Common and Hoary Redpolls: There will be a big flight of redpolls 
into southern Ontario and bordering United States. Seed crops on 
white birch, yellow birch and alder are very poor in most of Ontario. 
Expect redpolls at bird feeders this winter. Far northwestern Ontario 
has a good white birch crop so redpolls may be common there.

Pine Siskin: Similar to the White-winged Crossbill, most Pine Siskins 
departed Ontario this past summer, presumably attracted to huge 
spruce and fir cone crops in Alberta and British Columbia and/or to 
big spruce and balsam fir cone crops in Newfoundland and Cape Breton 
Island and probably elsewhere in the Atlantic Provinces. Some of the 
very few siskins that remained in Ontario are now wandering south 
with sightings of usually only ones and twos in southern Ontario. 
Large southward irruptions occur when cone crop failures span much of 
Canada. Very few siskins will visit feeders this winter in southern Ontario.

Evening Grosbeak: This grosbeak will irrupt south of the boreal 
forest this fall because tree seed crops are generally very poor in 
northeastern Ontario and western Quebec. In recent weeks scattered 
birds have visited feeders in southern Ontario. Beginning in the 
early 1980s the Evening Grosbeak declined significantly as large 
outbreaks of spruce budworm subsided. The larvae and pupae are eaten 
by adults and fed to nestlings. Expect Evening Grosbeaks at bird 
feeders in southern Ontario and northern United States, but not in 
the large numbers seen during the 1970s.

OTHER IRRUPTIVE PASSERINES

Red-breasted Nuthatch: They have been moving south since mid-June 
presumably because of the poor cone crop in central Canada. Almost 
all Red-breasted Nuthatches will depart Ontario's boreal forest by 
late fall and left the province. Some will be at feeders in southern 
Ontario, but they will be very scarce in Algonquin Park. Algonquin 
Christmas Bird Counts (32 years) show a biennial (every two years) 
high and low pattern, with some exceptions.

Bohemian Waxwing: The poor crop of native mountain-ash (rowan 
berries) in much of northern Ontario will cause Bohemians Waxwings to 
wander south and east this winter. Watch for them eating buckthorn 
berries and crabapples in southern Ontario. The mountain-ash crop is 
better west of Lake Superior with a big crop around Kenora at Lake of 
the Woods.

Blue Jay: A strong flight is expected this fall. The beechnut crop is 
zero and the acorn crop on red oak is only fair to good (aborted in 
some areas) in central Ontario. Soon thousands of jays will be 
migrating southwest along the shorelines of Lakes Ontario and Erie, 
exiting Ontario south of Windsor. This winter there will be far fewer 
Blue Jays in Algonquin Park and at feeders in central Ontario.

Gray Jay and Boreal Chickadee: They are moving in northeastern Quebec 
east of Tadoussac along the north shore of the St. Lawrence River. 
These movements could extend to southern Ontario and northeastern states.

NORTHERN OWLS

Small mammal populations were abundant this summer in northern 
Ontario, presumably increasing after the big seed/berry/fruit crops 
in 2006. However, crops this year are very poor in much of the north, 
partly caused by cold weather and snow in late spring that froze the 
buds and flowers of many plants. In early August, Ontario Ministry of 
Natural Resources biologists on aerial surveys noted many raptors 
near James Bay including 15-20 Great Gray Owls, Short-eared Owls 
(common), Northern Harriers (common) and scattered Rough-legged 
Hawks. If small mammal populations crash this fall, then Great Gray 
Owls, Northern Hawk Owls and Boreal Owls will move, possibly 
southward into areas accessible by birders. Northern Saw-whet Owl 
numbers are linked to red-backed voles (a forest vole) in Ontario. 
There is the possibility that this vole could decline soon because it 
often cycles with deer mice. The huge population of deer mice in 
central Ontario is declining rapidly now because of poor seed crops 
this summer, particularly sugar maple samaras, which they store for 
the winter. If red-backed vole numbers decline as they often do in 
association with deer mice, there will be a strong flight of Northern 
Saw-whet Owls this fall.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I thank staff of the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (OMNR) and 
birders whose reports allow me to make predictions about finches. 
They are Ken Abraham (OMNR Hudson Bay Lowlands), Dennis Barry (Durham 
Region and Haliburton County), Kevin Clute (Algonquin Park), Shirley 
Davidson (OMNR Minden), Bruce Di Labio (Eastern Ontario), Carrolle 
Eady (Dryden), Dave Elder (Atikokan), Bruce Falls (Brodie Club, 
Toronto), Brian Fox (OMNR Timmins to Chapleau), Marcel Gahbauer 
(Labrador, Alberta, British Columbia), Michel Gosselin (Gatineau, 
Quebec), Charity Hendry (OMNR Ontario Tree Seed Plant), Leo Heyens 
(OMNR Kenora), Tyler Hoar (central Ontario and southern Quebec), 
Peter Hynard (Cape Breton Island, Nova Scotia), Jean Iron (Toronto 
and northeastern Quebec), Christine Kerrigan and Peter Nevin (Parry 
Sound District), Barry Kinch (Timiskaming), Bob Knudsen (Ontario 
Parks, Algoma), Bruce Mactavish (Newfoundland), Scott McPherson (OMNR 
Northeast Region), Brian Naylor (OMNR North Bay), Marty Obbard (OMNR 
Peterborough), Justin Peter (Algonquin Park), Janet Pineau (Arrowhead 
Provincial Park), Fred Pinto (OMNR North Bay), Gordon Ross (OMNR 
Moosonee), Rick Salmon (OMNR Lake Nipigon), Don Sutherland (OMNR 
Hudson Bay Lowlands), Doug Tozer (Algonquin Park), Ron Tozer 
(Algonquin Park and Muskoka), Declan Troy (Alaska), Mike Turner (OMNR 
Brancroft District), Stan Vasiliauskas (OMNR Northeast Region), Mike 
Walsh (OMNR Muskoka and Parry Sound), John White (OMNR Ontario Tree 
Seed Plant) and Alan Wormington (Point Pelee). I thank Michel 
Gosselin, Jean Iron and Ron Tozer for reviewing the forecast. Ron 
Tozer also provided information from his upcoming book on The Birds 
of Algonquin Provincial Park.

PREVIOUS FINCH FORECASTS archived at Larry Neily's website: 
http://ca.geocities.com/larry.neily AT rogers.com/pittaway-old.htm

Ron Pittaway
Ontario Field Ornithologists
Minden, Ontario
15 September 2007
www.ofo.ca

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