As I write this, it is 1 April 2110, and I turn 148 years old later this year … the miracle of modern medicine. A strong SW'ly breeze has been blowing, bringing Gulf moisture and with it a warming trend projecting a high today, here along the shore of Lake Erie, of 30 deg C (for those of you still you using F that's 86 deg.) … we should see the peak Broad-winged Hawk flight this weekend.
 
I hear Cincy has been downright balmy what with a climate now more like Memphis, TN... back-in-the-day. Overnight temps in the Queen City have been running near 20 C ... ahead of the frontal boundary providing for a massive hatch of Chironimids off the massively swollen Ohio River (thanks to yet another record El Nino) …
 
 ...just in time for fledgling broods of phoebes and swallow nestlings … Trees, Northern Rough-wingeds, and Barns now hatch out in late March. Peering outside, I see the Magnolias are already dropping their blossoms ... can summer be far behind.
 
While pouring over the newly minted results of OBBA VI, trying to place them within the context of the last 100 years of eBird v12.0, I came across this ancient text within the OOS archive which terminated ...
 
"Is anyone willing to make some guesses as to what our birdlife will look like in 2110?" - Bill Whan ... as one of the most oft cited sources in Ohio ornithological literature, even to this day, I suspect some of you have heard of him.
 
This prompted the following idle thoughts excerpted from my summer 2109 draft for American Birds (name changed to reflect incorporation of South America in 2018).
And yes, I am very late with this issue.
 
First, the simple answer to yesterday's question is that today's future Ohio avifauna is no more recognizable to those of 100 years ago than that of 100 years ago was to settlers of the early 1800's ...still with me? .. think Kirtland and company transported to 2010. For although a shorter time-span has elapsed, the pace of change, especially since the debacle of the crude oil crisis of the 2070's, and the subsequent decentralization of alternative fuels (finally), would be nigh unfathomable. But also keep in mind the adage ... the more things change, the more they stay the same (e.g. no we’re not commuting in flying cars, and seriously, don’t ask me about jet packs).
 
To specifics ...
 
Waterfowl have for the most part maintained healthy populations especially as pertains to geese and puddle ducks. There was the avian influenza scare of 2022-24 that severely depressed Arctic breeding populations, but they recovered completely over the next half century or so. Not so the Galliformes (more on that in a bit). Hardest hit, the migratory Whooping Crane flock that was on the verge of being established at the time. Up to 30 would stop over within the Sandusky Plains wetlands* by 2020. However the flock was wiped out back then, along with many of the captive birds. At least the central flyway birds hung on and recovery efforts continue with renewed attempts at a mid-western population showing promise.
 
*... nowadays this is a 180,000 acre marsh complex that takes in roughly the outline of the old Big Island - Killdeer Plains Important Bird Area. In the aftermath of the avian influenza outbreak, the realization that substantial connected wetlands were necessary to accommodate migratory stopover, as well the need for a source populations of rails, bitterns etc., found a political voice through conservationists of all stripes. And so in 2025, Ohio embarked on an ambitious plan to re-build the prairie pothole structure of the Sandusky Plains, thereby formally recognizing the significance of the Sandusky Bay to Cincinnati overland wetland flyway, as well as protecting the water supply of a burgeoning Columbus populous which at the time was threatening to subsume outlying communities such as Delaware to the N, and Newark to the E. Adding to the political expediency, was the 7 years of extraordinary flooding throughout the Midwest that finally saw wholesale
 purchase of floodplain properties by Federal programs for buy-back of such properties. In Ohio that resulted in an extensive length of the lower Scioto River becoming the backbone of a new National Wildlife Refuge that, after nearly 90 years of re-forestation, affords a remarkable nesting corridor for forested bottomland species. Neotropical migrants like Ovenbirds now enjoy stable populations, while Cerulean Warblers, extirpated from the state by 2055, have been making a phenomenal comeback during the past couple of decades. Even Swainson’s Warblers that moved into the area in the late 2040’s, have recently established themselves north to the Pickaway/Franklin County line. Of course, one can also visit the small extra-limital population within the Lake County Park district.
 
Subsequently, we've seen restoration efforts involving the ancient Springville Marsh (about 11,000 acres), with our most recent addition being the footprint of the old Huron Bog just E of Willard Marsh after the collapse in 2107 of the crop farming there (as predicted in 1998). It has not always been a smooth course. Back in 2011, after close examination of satellite imagery, confirmation of twin natural basins of some 64,000 and 28,000 acres in size in Hardin County just W and NW of Kenton, offered a brief promise for wetland restoration. But the political imperative of wind energy usurped scientific evaluation of the sites and their relevance to the overland waterfowl flyway was to go undiscovered for another 15 years. Eventually, an imperative of a different kind, that of water quality, outweighed the limited energy prospects in Ohio of wind (the massive Lake Erie project notwithstanding).  With the wholesale conversion of eastern coal facilities
 to natural gas and the rise of solar power through the 2020's came the decade of clear vision ... so some historical pundits would wag. I wonder what any of you would think of the 4800 miles of solar arrays running the length of the median strips of our major highways, or the subterranean rail tunnels following these same routes (substituting for the bygone era of 18-wheelers) running, in part, off that same energy source (but mostly hydrogen). And every single LED lit mall parking lot PRODUCES more energy than it uses selling the excess to electric cars that charge up while you shop.
 
Of course, in hindsight, we all know the real breakthrough came in 2016 with cheap wafer thin kinetic solid state battery technology which coincidentally became pervasive during the same decade lowering energy consumption 15% by 2030. Imagine the very vibration of your car driving down the highway, coupled with existing technology of the day, being sufficient to charge your fuel cells. Imagine the replacement of chemical based batteries with solid state technology. Imagine batteries less than 1/100th of the mass of existing batteries with the same capacity.
 
I know, I digress…this is supposed to be about changes in avifauna over the past 100 years. But I think it necessary to convey that as much as those changes were influeneced by changes in environmental climate/habitat, this was in turn directly related to the economic climate, which over the course of the past 100 years has been almost exclusively influenced by the decisions you are going to make about your energy future.
 
Habitat: Eventually, almost 290,000 acres were brought under state, federal, and county management. The wet prairie is now home to small breeding populations of Black-necked Stilts, Green-winged Teals, and Wilson's Phalaropes as you might expect. Unfortunately, all this was too late for the Upland Sandpiper which was lost as a breeding species by 2028. Sad to say, I’ve not so much as seen a migrant within the state since 2089. I won’t dwell on our losses of the past100 years, neither wanting to be the bearer of bad news, nor is the list as long as some might think. Ten percent of offshore Atlantic oil leases, won as a compromise to having that program go forward in 2012, ultimately generated 4 billion dollars a decade in funding of federal conservation programs (although 75% was to go to the Army Corps of Engineers for water conservation). While within Ohio, once marketing took hold, the Ohio Wildlife Legacy Stamp went along way to maintaining and
 connecting corridors of habitat for wildlife, not to mention preservation of recreational outdoors for an increasingly black-topped urban environment.
 
We were pleasantly surprised by the comeback of the Black Tern in 2037 ... we now see about 200 pairs inland with triple that within the Western Basin. But could you have foreseen our first Franklin's Gull nest just a year later? They remain sporadic as a nesting species, usually after a prolonged La Nina. Neotropical Cormorant, first recorded in the state way back in 2014, was not confirmed as a breeding species until 2059 during OBBA IV.  Signs of southern waterbirds moving north include the Mottled Duck established as a breeder north to Mercer W.M.A. Recently confirmed during OBBA VI, Black-bellied Whistling Ducks bred in Butler and Hamilton counties last year. Summering now at Killbuck Marsh for the past decade, the same is suspected of Anhinga, while the rare but annual Masked Duck has not repeated it’s one time brood success of 2092-94 during that all-time record heat wave.
 
I mentioned I would mention Galliformes, and their demise. Ring-necked Pheasants, very much on the way out in 2010, held on through 2032 largely as a result of periodic releases, but their small numbers and perhaps limited gene pool were decimated by the avian influenza. Nor did the Bobwhite fair much better. Occasional sightings along the Ohio River counties indicated continued dispersal from Kentucky. It took restoration efforts in Adams County to take hold as revealed during OBBA V …around the mid-2080’s. Ruffed Grouse, already on the verge of extirpation by 2032, actually weathered the virus, but their numbers dwindled through the remainder of the 21st century. None have been seen since 2094 succumbing in the aftermath of several severe droughts. On the other hand, the Wild Turkey thrives. The Greater Prairie Chicken restoration effort at The Wilds, in the absence of brood parasitic pheasants, were slow to get off the ground 2050-2070, the
 extended drought of that period not helping matters, but recent releases within the prairie mosaic of the NW, especially near the MI state line, are looking good.
 
I believe I must end there ... the convergence of this 10g subspace channel and your primitive 4g technology draws to a close ... until this time next year ... perhaps I’ll focus on the passerines … here’s a preview … just got this hummed through my cochlear data implant a moment ago … Painted Buntings are back at their Oak Openings breeding site marking the third year in a row.
 
cheers
 
VWF3

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