Mentioned on the eBird news feed recently, there is a new paper about
migration timing across various species. Anyone interested in how different
species might respond to a warm spring might want to check it out.

Hurlbert AH, Liang Z (2012) Spatiotemporal Variation in Avian Migration
Phenology: Citizen Science Reveals Effects of Climate Change. PLoS ONE 7(2):
e31662
http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0031662
(open access)

"Across all species and geographic locations, species shifted arrival dates
0.8 days earlier for every °C of warming of spring temperature, but it was
common for some species in some locations to shift as much as 3–6 days
earlier per °C. Species that advanced arrival dates the earliest in response
to warming were those that migrate more slowly, short distance migrants, and
species with broader climatic niches."

So to me this means birds like sparrows and warblers that can respond to
more local/regional weather patterns may arrive earlier than normal, but
long-distance migrants such as bobolinks should tend to arrive around the
usual dates.

In any case, there should be lots of plump caterpillar worms to eat when the
warblers do show up! Had our first Field Sparrow here in Ashtabula County
this morning. No ruby-throats yet, but the feeders are up. =)

Sean Artman
Rock Creek, Ohio

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