Jen & all---
        Perhaps I misunderstood Matt's question about "what types of birds 
might be coming down with the arctic weather we should be on the look 
out for?" I assumed he was referring to the really arctic weather we're 
experiencing now, rather than routine expected seasonal variations. 
Sure, stiff northern winds will blow certain regular seasonal migrants 
interesting to Ohioans closer---jaegers, certain gulls and waterfowl 
species, etc.--but I thought an observer as experienced as Matt would be 
interested in what might be the really unusual species that some extra 
cold weather would bring.
        My answer was, and is, that bad weather is seldom a factor in records 
of quite unexpected northern rarities. Some recent Ohio rarities---birds 
like royal and sooty terns and frigatebirds--apparently showed up here 
driven by storms from the south, but few northern rarities seem to be 
associated with arctic cold fronts or storms on the Lake: maybe our 
single-bird records of black guillemot, ancient murrelet, Atlantic 
puffin did, but they didn't show up in mid-winter when arctic weather 
predominated. Species like these can get lost without storms, arctic or 
not, and the Arctic's relatively few winter bird species we see are 
driven south mostly by food failures. Owls of the far north do not show 
up because it's too cold up there, but because new sources of prey are 
made available to them. We are all accustomed to yearly reports of berry 
crops, not the weather, that govern the appearances of northern 
songbirds. Ivory gulls, no less than razorbills and murres, are not 
driven here by storms, but by reduced availability of food. The southern 
storms, like hurricanes, have brought us a lot of new birds, but arctic 
weather, all by itself, has by and large not.
Bill Whan
Columbus



On 1/6/2014 5:36 PM, jen brumfield wrote:
> Indeed, cold arctic blasts associated with strong fronts/winds do
> absolutely drive uncommon and rare birds into our region as well as
> across the board throughout the US and Canada. And Europe for that
> matter. Depending on where the origin of the storm and strength/path
> of winds, one can be aware of what rarities to keep a lookout for.
> Folks are able to predict what species may be on the move or could
> likely show up. Most birders are keenly aware that keeping a close
> eye on large weather events will greatly increase the chances of, for
> example, good lake watching days for jaegers/gulls/waterfowl,
> passerine fallouts, hurricane "storm" birds, etc. This is a fantastic
> subject and one that deserves for more then this extremely short
> comment. But far and away, yes, being aware of major weather systems
> and how they affect birding opportunities is a key way to gain skills
> and knowledge base for rarities that you may seek.
>
>
> JB CLE, OH
>
>
> On Jan 6, 2014, at 4:34 PM, "Bill Whan" <[log in to unmask]>
> wrote:
>
>> Matt-- That's a good question I haven't thought about. I don't
>> think cold weather prompts unusual local arrivals of northern birds
>> any more than hot weather does the same for southern birds. They
>> are adapted to the weather extremes in their ranges. For example,
>> we are probably not seeing this invasion of snowy owls because it
>> is too cold up north. The important factor is food. I don't think
>> anyone can predict large incursions of birds based on weather
>> alone, unless the weather affects food sources. Back in the late
>> 19th century, Ohio and neighboring states experienced a winter
>> invasion of thick-billed murres, which was thought to have been
>> caused by a failure in an important food source for this species: I
>> wrote an article for the Cardinal about this species, not seen here
>> for many many years, in the Winter 2003-4 Ohio Cardinal. It seems
>> similar factors may have been involved in the unprecedented (for
>> humans at least) incursion of razorbills last winter, which
>> appeared in large numbers as far south as Miami (see the new issue
>> of North American Birds)! Many birders are aware of the extreme
>> variations in the numbers of winter finches each winter, which seem
>> to be influenced by varying seed crops in the northern forests.
>> These seem to be the best factors we humans can use to predict
>> occurrences so far ahead for birds of the north. Extralimital
>> occurrences happen for reasons we cannot always predict. We had a
>> royal tern here near Columbus three years ago, but no one had any
>> idea ahead of time that violent storms along the Gulf would sling
>> one up this way in 2011. So my answer would be we can't tell, and
>> isn't that part of the intriguing mystery? Shivering, Bill
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> Bill … Can you also pontificate on what types of birds might be
>> coming down with the arctic weather we should be on the look out
>> for?
>>
>> Thanks! Matt
>>
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