Hi Casey and all, Wow! I hope you are right, but this conclusion flies in the face of much research that has been done on American Kestrels in the Midwestern and northeastern U.S. Many of us who spend lots of time traveling about and in the field began noticing what seemed to be lower numbers of this beautiful little falcon some years ago, and while this is less obvious in winter, when there is an influx of wintering birds to Ohio, it is dramatic in many areas during the breeding season. Kestrels really seemed to have dropped dramatically or even disappeared in many areas of the state as breeders, and Aaron Boone had looked at preliminary Breeding Bird Atlas data that seemed to bear this out, although it is still too premature to make definitive statements based on that data. A quick analysis of Christmas Bird Count data, which anyone can do at: http://www.audubon.org/bird/cbc/hr/index.html showed a statistically significant drop in kestrel numbers in Ohio as a whole over the last decade. Last year's counts produced a total of 975 kestrels, with a total of 1,437 observers on 56 counts. In contrast, one decade earlier the 1995-96 CBC's, which also had 56 counts but only 1300 observers, produced 1,399 kestrels! So, in spite of an equal number of CBC's and 137 more observers, 424 FEWER kestrels were found last year as compared to ten years prior. This jives with much of the anecdotal observations that I've heard from active field reporters in Ohio in recent years. This decline is supported with data from elsewhere. For instance, the Breeding Bird Survey routes, which have been run since the 1960's, show a drop of about 1.4% a year for the northeast region, of which Ohio is on the western periphery of. Big hawk watches like Cape May and Hawk Mountain have been documenting statistically significant declines in kestrel numbers in migration in recent decades, too. An enlightening but somewhat depressing report issued by Hawk Mountain can be found here http://www.hawkmountain.org/raptor_conservation/CSR_AMKE.htm and seems to largely mirror what we are seeing in Ohio. Obvious problems for these little raptors include changes in overall agriculture which have led to conditions that aren't so conducive to providing good raptor habitat, and outright development. Regarding the latter, a look at the last ten years of the Columbus CBC - an area typical of rampant development associated with many bigger Ohio cities - shows a real kestrel decline. Ten years ago, 23 kestrels were found on the Columbus CBC; in 2005, only 8 were found. American Kestrels are cavity-nesters, and a lack of suitable nesting sites is probably hurting them, in addition to other factors. Placing nest boxes in suitable sites will help, and Dick Tuttle of Delaware, Ohio has done this in numerous sites and seen good results. The Ohio Ornithological Society has been working with American Electric Power to explore the possibility of erecting kestrel boxes in some of the vast reclaimed strip mine grasslands of SE Ohio, and hopefully that effort will bear some good results eventually. We are also looking at some other ways in which we might work with organizations to help kestrels via nest box placement in good habitats. Jim McCormac Columbus, Ohio -----Original Message----- From: Ohio birds [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of TUCKER, Casey Sent: Friday, January 26, 2007 11:25 PM To: [log in to unmask] Subject: Re: [Ohio-birds] Am. Pipets in Holmes Co. & some thoughts on Kestrel populations Hi Laura, I wanted to follow-up on your question regarding Kestrels in Ohio. After the last discussion on the listserv about the status of this species in the state I started looking at some Audubon Christmas Bird Count data to see if I could discern any patterns in population trends. I looked at Kestrel data (birds per party hour) from almost all of the CBCs in Ohio between 1960 (61st count) and 2005 (106th count). Using this data I was able to come up with a statewide trend for Kestrels in the state. I went through each count in the state and categorized them into one of four categories based on a rough estimation of the predominant habitat type within each count circle. The four categories were rural, urban, areas undergoing sprawl, or communities that have pretty much remained the same. I then looked at Kestrel trends for each of the four habitat types and compared them against the statewide trend. My rough analysis of CBC data suggests that over-wintering Kestrels are increasing statewide. However, they're increasing more in rural areas, and slightly more in communities that have not undergone much change. They seem to be decreasing pretty dramatically in urban areas. In communities undergoing change (i.e. development) Kestrels seem to be leveling out. Because over-wintering Kestrels seem to be increasing, based on this study, in rural areas irrespective of region of the state or agricultural type (which I did not examine) would potentially suggest that crop type or herbicide use may not be a factor. Again, this was just a rough analysis without any special statistical analysis to determine significance, etc., and it's only looking at birds recorded during the Christmas Bird Count period (mid-December to early January). I can send copies of the graphs in a microsoft word document to anyone who is interested in seeing them for themselves. Hope this helps answer your question a little, Casey -----Original Message----- From: Ohio birds on behalf of [log in to unmask] Sent: Fri 1/26/2007 7:15 PM To: [log in to unmask] Cc: Subject: [Ohio-birds] Am. Pipets in Holmes Co. & some thoughts on Kestrel populations Returning from our cottage in Coshocton Co. today, Tim & I drove some back roads in Holmes Co. & were lucky enough to find a flock of 10-20 American Pipits feeding on some freshly spread manure. They were on CR 58 just west of the intersection with T122 & T128. (Delorme 60A4--right above the"N" in Mechanic Township). Also saw a Rough-legged Hawk on T157, just outside of Charm (DeLorme 51D4). While driving these roads we saw quite a few kestrels, more than we have seen in similar habitat in other rural areas of Coshocton, Stark, Summit & Portage counties. (The counties we drive most often). Remembering the discussions we have seen on this list-serve regarding possible kestrel population declines, we wondered what might be different in Holmes Co. Could the use of Round-up Ready crops that has become so popular in recent years be a factor? It is quite likely that these Round-up treated seeds are not used as heavly on Amish farms. These treated seeds result in less weeds, which should mean less insects & therefore less food for kestrels. Or could the insects that are present have toxins in them from the treated seeds? Would any of this hypotheses result in kestrels either dying or moving to other areas, such as Holmes Co.? Has anyone else noticed more kestrels in some counties that have less soybean/corn row crop production where Round-up Ready seed is more prevelant? Laura Dornan Louisville, Stark Co. ______________________________________________________________________ Ohio-birds mailing list, a service of the Ohio Ornithological Society. 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