Things are always more complicated than I think. Adding to the information I posted the other day, here are a couple of items. First, a post from yesterday by Tom Johnson in Churchill, Manitoba: "Manitoba birders, Summer has finally settled on Churchill after a long, cold, snowy, and unstable spring. Very small numbers of shorebirds have initiated nesting within the past week - these have been Whimbrel, Hudsonian Godwit, American Golden-Plover, Semipalmated Plover, and Short-billed Dowitcher - we (Cornell University shorebird crew) have yet to find nests for the majority of shorebird species that nest here, including Least Sandpiper, Dunlin, Stilt Sandpiper, Red-necked Phalarope, etc. If these species don't intiate nesting very soon, it is likely that they will fail locally this year. Recently, more Smith's Longspurs and Alder Flycatchers have arrived, and Yellow Warblers finally started nest-building yesterday (very late for here). Today while doing point counts along the eastern 4 km of Launch Rd. near the Churchill Northern Studies Centre, I heard a Chestnut-collared Longspur call twice as it flew over (!). Though this local mega was not photographed, the identification was solid (rich, three note "chrrt-chrrt-chrrt" flight call) and others heard the bird and were able to immediately compare it to flight call recordings on my iPod. I will post if the bird is relocated. The flyover was on Launch Rd. adjacent to the Churchill Wildlife Management Area sign with the polar bear on it. Along with many Smith's and a single Lapland, this made for a special three longspur day in Churchill. Yesterday was the first day that the Twin Lakes Road was open to car travel this summer. A quick jaunt into the boreal forest along Cook St. turned up a female Spruce Grouse, flyover White-winged Crossbills, and a Bohemian Waxwing, among other typical Twin Lakes breeders. Some recent Churchill photos are here: http://www.flickr.com/photos/bonxie88 Cheers, Tom" Second, a weather map from Environment Canada: http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html? img=mfe1t_s&title=forecasts As you can see, the temperature in the Hudson Bay region, including Churchill, is indeed low, but temperatures in other areas such as the goose areas of the high Arctic apparently have above-normal temperatures. I imagine therefore that cold-weather effects on high-latitude nesters are unlikely to be widespread. Churchill-area shorebird species nest in many other Arctic sites, so significant effects on the species level seem unlikely as well. So it looks like a real catastrophe may not be in the offing. We who live in the migratory pathway from Hudson Bay will likely notice the return of increased numbers of failed breeders among the shorebirds--indeed, some have started to show up record-early already, judging by reports. These should be adults in fairly intact breeding plumage, and it'll be fun studying them and learning how they'll be dealing with all this--what routes they'll take, whether they'll linger, if their molt timing might be different, etc. Maybe whimbrels will nest in my back yard... Feeling relieved, Bill Whan ______________________________________________________________________ Ohio-birds mailing list, a service of the Ohio Ornithological Society. Our thanks to Miami University for hosting this mailing list. Additional discussions can be found in our forums, at www.ohiobirds.org/forum/. You can join or leave the list, or change your options, at: http://listserv.muohio.edu/scripts/wa.exe?LIST=OHIO-BIRDS Send questions or comments about the list to: [log in to unmask]