It has been of interest following the discussion on RBME (red-breasted Merganser) numbers in recent days. John posed an interesting and maybe alarming question that answers aren't easy to come by. As can probably be said in any wildlife question there are many threads of effect and teasing them apart is difficult and often speculative which can be a dangerous place to go. Having supervised 30 years of waterfowl monitoring programs for the state and having a life long interest let me throw out some comments. First we simply don't know the answer. RBME are not well represented in breeding surveys that have been ongoing since the 1950s because the vast majority of the population nest north of the prairies and parklands where flying is risky at best, so USFWS does not make estimates from questionable data. However, the new eastern survey which does count mergs (although as has been mentioned can not differentiate reliably from the air, species) shows no change in the past decade of breeders. So is breeding not a problem or are there contaminant problems similar to those indicated with scaup that are going undocumented because of breeding range. Staging numbers, which have been mentioned in discussion has been of question. No where else before or after are RBME seen like they are on Lake Erie. There aren't any "new" sites being reported to the north. Could they be changing location within the Lake, maybe. The ecosystem with all the invasives is changing. ODOW surveys are designed for lake shore and marshes but we have always flown the western basin. The new pelagic survey being conducted as we speak this year may shed some light here. Are they being more mobile or with gobies and such less mobile. Both could effect what we see. Wintering numbers have never been recorded in anything close to what we count on Lake Erie. It is believed they, unlike the Common Merganser, winter far off the Atlantic and Gulf coast beyond aerial surveys and shore observers. So is it an illusion, have they changed staging behavior, is there a decline and if so is it contaminants from the Great Lakes effecting reproductive potential or some other undocumented problem. We are seeing fewer birds and they can't hide from the aircraft. Let's see if the pelagic surveys pick them up albeit later then we are use to. Mark Shieldcastle retired Waterfowl Biologist Research Director Black Swamp Bird Observatory Oak Harbor ______________________________________________________________________ Ohio-birds mailing list, a service of the Ohio Ornithological Society. Our thanks to Miami University for hosting this mailing list. Additional discussions can be found in our forums, at www.ohiobirds.org/forum/. You can join or leave the list, or change your options, at: http://listserv.muohio.edu/scripts/wa.exe?LIST=OHIO-BIRDS Send questions or comments about the list to: [log in to unmask]