I finally had a chance to read the Xie study: "Socio-economic Impacts of Birdwatching along Lake Erie: A Coastal Ohio Analysis" The astonishing result of $26 million in direct expenditures in 2010-2011 at 6 coastal Ohio sites raises my eyebrows, however in looking at the methodology I see partially how this number was achieved: ..."on-site surveys were conducted with a selected sample of birdwatchers visiting six sites" The key words here are "selected sample" meaning those handing out the were able to pick and choose whom they asked to fill out the questionnaire. To obtain truly valid and accurate results a qualitative study of this sort must attempt to use a random sample. This insures that all segments of a population are covered. There are many ways of achieving a random sample or near random sample in such a study, but these require more rigorous and difficult methodology. The study is seriously lacking in explanation of the methods used to extrapolate the questionnaire results from 2392 respondents to achieve overall economic impact. Are we to assume these ~2400 individuals account for the entire $26 million? No, that is silly, but does illustrate the need to detail the extrapolation methods used to created the estimate. An IMPLAN model was used to determine multiplier effects based upon the initial estimates, but this still does not shed any detail on how the $26 million figure was derived. Next I would again question the claim that Magee Marsh Wildlife area attracts more than 100,000 visitors a year. This is an astonishing number but you can achieve such a claim depending on how you count a "visitor". For instance if on a peak day 2,000 people visit the Magee Marsh boardwalk and you consider each time they enter the boardwalk you count it as a visit, the numbers accumulate quickly. However if you count each visitor only once per day there would need to be 50 2,000 visitor days a year to achieve such a figure. As a further reality check look at the $7 million ($6,965,957) spent on lodging in the Magee area during the year of the study. This would mean that at an average $100 per night per room there were 69,660 guest room nights booked. To achieve this figure, it would mean that over the course of the year and assuming double occupancy, on 34 nights there were 1000 rooms booked in the area. Or 500 rooms booked over 68 days or 250 over 136 days etc. Consider that Maumee Bay SP lodge has 120 rooms and 24 cottages. Given location it would indicate the lodge is fully booked with birdwatchers for a significant number of nights. However using the lodge's reservation system I can still get a room over IMBD weekend and the Biggest Week in American Birding. One would think that given demographics, location, and demand cited above, those rooms would all be booked by now. (if we increase the rate to $150 per night, then numbers become 34 days at 750 rooms, 68 days at 375 rooms etc.) Let me add the caveat that I have no idea how many rooms are available in the area so I cannot say if the figures above jibe with the reality of available rooms. While there is much to question in the study, perhaps the most striking figure presented is that 54% of respondents have an annual household income of greater that $75,000 per year and 34% are above $100k. This would indicate that bird watching is an activity favored overwhelmingly by the top 5% of income earners in our society. Is this reality? Think about your own circle of bird watching friends and acquaintances: Are more than 50% in this upper strata of income? In thinking about the birdwatchers and birders I know many do fall into this category, but many do not. In the end I would like to see more evidence to support this result reflecting the true distribution of birdwatchers visiting these areas. This is why a random sample is so important. There is much of interest in this study. The GIS information in particular. In conclusion I find the study very interesting, but would like to see a more accurate sampling method and more evidence to support the result. There are many other very interesting results which stretch my perception of reality (e.g. results for Mentor Marsh area) It seems to be the sort of work where if you accept the assumptions the conclusions are valid. However given the lack of assumptions listed nor methods detailed for extrapolating questionnaire results to achieve overall economic impact numbers I would not make any serious or even casual, business decision based upon this study. Haans Petruschke Kirtland ______________________________________________________________________ Ohio-birds mailing list, a service of the Ohio Ornithological Society. Our thanks to Miami University for hosting this mailing list. 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