Several people that I ran into today at Ottawa National Wildlife Refuge and
Magee Marsh Wildlife Area (northwest Ohio) asked me when the next big
arrival of birds was going to happen.  I've now had a chance to look at the
weather maps and try to come up with a prediction.  The following is adapted
from the Black Swamp Bird Observatory's regular migration updates (see:
http://www.bsbo.org/Birding/   )

Wednesday May 12: We've reached that point in spring when migrants are going
to push northward even if conditions are not favorable. That's the only
explanation I can see for the fact that a number of new birds showed up
today. Tuesday night there were heavy rains and cool temperatures, and only
a brief period during the night when winds were southerly, but today it was
obvious that many thrushes had come in overnight. In the woods at Ottawa NWR
and Magee Marsh, all five brown thrushes were seen, with numbers of Veery
and Swainson's Thrush especially noticeable. White-crowned Sparrows and
Rose-breasted Grosbeaks also appeared to have increased in numbers. Once
again, the numbers of individual warblers were only moderate, but the
variety of warbler species was excellent, and many birders were thrilled by
great views of Blackburnian, Cape May, Black-throated Blue, Chestnut-sided,
Mourning, and other warblers.

As of late afternoon Wednesday, winds are from the northeast, it's raining
to the south of us, and rain is very likely tonight and tomorrow. I don't
expect that many migrants are going to come in tonight. On Thursday rain is
likely for much of the day, especially late morning and afternoon, and the
forecast calls for possibly severe storms in late afternoon and early
evening. So the migrants that were around today are likely to still be here
tomorrow, but if you're pursuing them, be prepared to dodge rain showers.

On Thursday evening, even though scattered showers will continue,
temperatures will be warmer and winds are predicted to be out of the south
for most of the night. Also, it appears that there won't be a lot of rain to
the south of us, so migrants that have been dammed up farther south will
probably be moving this direction. It's too early to say for sure, but this
could be a setup for a big arrival of migrants on Friday, May 14. It will
depend on exactly where the rain showers are located late at night on
Thursday, but if we get lucky, we could have a major influx of the second
wave of warblers and other neotropical migrants on Friday.  The day could be
a bust, too, but I'm going to gamble on Friday being a much better birding
day than Thursday will be.

Kenn Kaufman
Black Swamp Bird Observatory
Oak Harbor, Ohio

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