I'll have to differ a bit with Bill on this one.  I think that it's the unpredictability of the habitat that defines a true harbinger.  Sure Pectorals and Louisiana Waterthrushes travel very far to get here, but their habitats - mudflats and streams - are less impacted by weather vagaries.  I've seen waterthrushes singing and carrying on in a stream that bisected deep snow. I doubt they had much of a problem finding food. Swifts are a different thing; their aerial prowess is such that a 600 mile flight means little to them.  If conditions are bad, they just turn around and fly back!

No, I'm more impressed by open grassland birds like Meadowlarks, Vesper & Savannah Sparrows, since they arrive when their haunts can be either open or totally snow-covered.  Not only that, but fields tend to lag woods in their seasonal phenology, so their first big flush of insects is a long way off.  The first singing Meadowlark or Vesper Sparrow is truly an act of faith, faith that the worst of winter is over.  That's the sign of a true herald.

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